Recently the international and national media was full of headlines concerning the arrest of two senior military officers. The twittersphere was equally upbeat about the events, the general story line was: something must be going on in Rwanda.
An observer might indeed link the arrests with previous ones and come to the conclusion that there might be a State crisis caused by disenfranchised elites. There are however different reasons why this is not the case:
Lack of political motive:
A genuine division occurs where there is a political disagreement. Well, the people arrested occupied for decades the highest government positions without voicing or any divergent point of view about the political orientation or practicing it while in office. Thus, there is no political debate at hand.
Lack of constituencies
Still, someone might argue that after all, the former Principal Private Secretary, the former Head of the Republican Guard (a unit in charge of protecting the top institutions within the country and not only the President as stated in the media), former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defense cannot be put into question without raising concerns over a crisis at the heart of the State. Well, behind these positions is one family and not constituencies.
State building in the context of Socio-economic reforms
Aha, so what is it? Why would someone be involved in the past at the highest levels in a government and later on decide not to be just a critical or alternative voice but openly call for war, like the so-called gang of four based in South Africa?
The issue at hand is whether the State has permanent and impersonal interests or individualized and time bound interests. Very few Statesmen have dared to try and accomplish socio-economic reforms while at the same time implementing State building measures. We all have heard of them because they are only very few. This is indeed a risky equation to solve and if anything, President Kagame might be accused of trying to achieve this complicated mission in a post-genocide society, this is indeed unheard of. Why is that complicated?
Socio-economic reforms require a positive attitude from the elites: they need to responsibly become rich by creating jobs and products. In order to have the elite on their side, political leaders often court them, in developed countries this is done by professional lobbyists whose methods are often conflicting with the laws and even can cause state paralysis. A recent study conducted by the University of Princeton about the US has indeed concluded that there is no democracy in the US but an oligarchy.
State building on the other hand is about a permanent and impersonal service delivery oriented towards the common good. In the words of President Kagame: “We should never think that we deserve the best and Rwandans should receive the rest. It does not work like that. The people of Rwanda deserve the best.”
Thus, State building naturally resists tendencies by some members of the elite to personalize service delivery. This is even more the case in developing countries with a small private sector composed of tenderpreneurs rather than entrepreneurs. In such context, the private sector heavily depends on the public sector to create personal wealth, and there is always a risk of the public sector being hijacked.
It is therefore not surprising to see former ‘Who’s Who’ in the government developing a negative attitude geared towards hijacking State institutions. Naturally, such impulse comes after realizing that the only way to get richer as civil servant is to use a short cut. In the ideal case, a former General becomes a good CEO, a former senior civil servant leads an international think etc.; but this require a dose of patience which some are not ready to comply with.
This short-sightedness might be linked to the fact that no living generation of Rwandans has ever experienced heritage, for our recent history was chaotic, it can however not be excused given the fresh mass graves we see North, South, East and West within our beautiful country. Students of history will recall the so-called gang of four under Mao Tse Tung, Mr. Nzirorera and Zigiranyirazo or even a Saudi millionaire sponsoring terrorism …the list is long of elite forces that have brought down an entire country.
The bet of President Kagame is to accomplish state building measures such as universal service delivery (achievements in health, education, security and inclusive governance are well known) while expanding the venues for private sector led wealth creation. In other words, no short cuts for everyone but the State for all.
This strategic bet is the only way, Rwanda can sustainably develop, all the others have been tested and they didn’t. Rwanda suffers indeed from a systemic vulnerability due to the combination of geopolitical insecurity, hardly accessible natural resources, no access to the sea and high population density. This leaves Rwandan elites little room for negligence or free riding. As stated in a luminous article about systemic elite vulnerability “all developmental institutions arise from the challenges of addressing popular pressures through the provision of side payments under hard budget constraints in a highly constrained geopolitical environment”.
Thus, there is no State crisis but State vitality. As President Kagame has put it: Don’t tell me about your excellent past when you are not telling me about your excellent present or future”.
Agaciro: a new state doctrine
Since the early days of the post-genocide polity, prophets of doom have vainly searched for the last straw that will break the camel’s back. In reality, the suggestion of a potential escalation after genocide reveals a bad taste of revisionist reasoning, there is simply nothing worse than 1994 genocide. As stated above Rwanda’s vulnerability is systemic and there is no reason to search for solutions in a big bang moment. With the year 2017 approaching, however, the so-called ‘third –term debate’ gave prophets of doom their famous deadline. Thus, some are quick to link whatever happens with perceived scenarios of what will happen after 2017.
Ironically, the third-term debate cannot be solved by the deadline of 2017. Imagine President Kagame doesn’t accept the nomination by his political party in 2017. You can already read the headlines of post-2017: Rumors on the streets of Kigali, President Kagame is coming back! It is a never ending story and reveals in reality the long held hope of some people to see Kagamenomics disappear with the year 2017. In other words, they would want to see a different Rwanda after 2017, one does not resemble like the one of today marked by self-assertiveness.
It should be a no –brainer to everyone concerned with the faith of the country, as all commentators are claiming, that Rwanda’s systemic problems are not going to disappear overnight in the year 2017. Addressing Rwanda’s challenges will continue to require hard work, a focus on the real issues and innovation. Rwandan’s new Arms of Coat gives a testament of radical pragmatism (Unity, Work and Patriotism) and not ideological vagabondage. As for other developmental States facing systemic vulnerability, the question will remain how Rwanda can continuously expand the national pie through more jobs and products. This alone will keep the current consensus around national unity and reconciliation and thereby the freedom of everyone. Instead of being focused with self-aggrandizement, that is always short-lived; “Elites must design side payments without draining the national treasury or raising exporters’ costs. In other words, sustaining broad coalitions over the long run requires the ability to export high value-added goods, namely to upgrade. States exhibiting weak or even “intermediate” institutions lack the capacity to overcome these political-economic challenges”.
For all obsessed with the 2017 deadline, their inability to articulate better solutions for the developmental challenges faced by Rwandans reveals a lack of political essence. In order, to mask this shortcoming, they have come up with a myriad of excuses which can be summarized as follows: ethnical balance of power. In reality, the difference of RNC and Parmehutu-MDR/MRND is only in the name. Like the genocidaire government of Abatabazi in April 1994, RNC has managed to reunite former MRND and MDR-Parmehutu activists under an unapologetic political program whose vision does not go beyond the size of the nose. Even FDLR has demonstrated more adaptive capacity than RNC, while the former has become a modern international terror network; the latter seeks to round up all losers into a race towards 1959.
The alliance with FDLR might have given RNC an operational capability, but RNC didn’t make FDLR acceptable at court. There has been a well orchestrated attempt to make FDLR and thus ethnic politics en vogue within international circles, but analysts suggest that this is more linked to the inability to confront FDLR by the international community than to the RNC particle. In any case, Rwandans have had their ‘atomic power moment’ in 1994 by realizing that nothing in the international community can prevent the worse to happen to them, therefore nothing should be feared than ourselves’ power of destruction. Thus, there is little leverage the international community has to force a comeback to ethnic politics.
As for internal proponents of ethnic politics, no amount of populism can eradicate the deep scars of pre-1994 politics. It is legitimate for any Rwandan to aspire for power, but there is a disservice rendered to future generations of Rwandans by RNC and their international backers: the re-affirmation of ethnic politics as highway to power, this is simply criminal. Young Rwandans, from any political orientation, should earn their leadership credentials through a continuously demonstrated ability to create opportunities for others, either as captains of industry or innovators. It is not by shying away from performance through cheap populism, ego-trips and criminal activity. Our generational task is to continue this collective effort of Agaciro: building on the individual dignity of each Rwandan to transform Rwanda in an internationally competitive entity.
The power to shape a present of dignity and a future of ever-expanding opportunities lies at the heart of Kagemenomics, this model cannot be silenced by a deadline. It is the ceiling on which any aspirant to power should operate or else become obsolete. Agaciro is a new state doctrine.
Africa is a rising lion 