Developmental intent: Reshaping our sovereign will and the challenges ahead
For starters, Rwanda’s sovereign horizon, from independence to 1994, literally did not go beyond the size of the nose of her citizens. Today, Rwanda is a developmental State in the making where the national discourse is around performance to reach middle-income Status by the year 2020.
One of the most important legacies of Paul Kagame as a leader is his ability to personify and shape our modern sovereign will. At times where no institution was able to articulate how Rwanda would emerge out of more than five decades of degeneration, a leader emerged with the military and political skills to shape Rwanda’s journey towards dignity.
This journey, as we know it, was politically enabled by an ideology grounded in the self-evident truth that if all men are born with equal dignity (Agaciro), there is no reason why all men or nations shouldn’t have equal opportunities. This firm belief allowed for the Rwandan culture to be at the center of political ingenuity while at the same time radically opening the Rwandan society to the world. The Agaciro era is marked by homegrown solutions and fiber optic.
At the heart of the Rwandan renaissance lies a phenomenon of reloading the sovereign will of Rwandans from antagonism and poverty towards cohesion and progressiveness. Today, this journey is far from over, yet the question of its sustainability already emerges. In general people ask how often Rwanda can keep reinventing herself without being haunted by old demons or hitting against the wall? What are the factors bankrolling the journey ahead? It is this area of tension that underpins the current 3rd term debate.
The 3rd term debate has brought up many arguments which are worth revisiting to shed more lights on Rwanda’s future.
1. The Anti-3rd term arguments: Between Legality and Legacy
It should be a no brainer that modifying a constitution is actually exercising the rights it contains. There is however an argument that rule of law is different from rule by law, and that a modern society should have intangible values or risk sliding back. This argument is inspired by the modern German constitution theory of Grundgesetz (permanent basis of all laws) and has now spread everywhere in the world. Constitutions have become secular dogma. Modifying the Constitution to alter term limits therefore is interpreted by some as blasphemy. Nonetheless, no constitution of this world can survive a referendum on a procedural issue such as term limits, which is not a universal principle. Thus, the legal argument does not hold on firm ground. At the end of the day a constitution remains the expression of the discretionary will of a people.
It is true that the Rwandan constitutional culture upholds the idea of rule of law, as the centuries old adage proves: Ingoma ihaka u Rwanda (i.e. Rwanda is governed by values). The 2003 Constitution that has brought the reign of unity and reconciliation ( Ingoma y’Ubumwe n’Ubwiyungye) also came with intangible values such as the sacred nature of the dignity of Rwandans. In a sense, President Kagame himself is the personification of a Rwanda that stands on firm convictions. Thus, there is an argument to be made around the potentially damaging impact the extension of term limits can have on the legacy of the architect of modern Rwanda: President Kagame.
The legacy argumentation goes as follows: In a sense, President Kagame does neither belong to the RPF nor to Rwanda only. He has become a figure beyond the position of President of Rwanda, his inspirational power of attraction is global in outreach and deeply African in expression. If his leadership is not positional but inspirational, why clinging on a certain position some may ask? With or without position, Paul Kagame will continue to shape Rwanda, Africa and the world. His influence on the minds of Rwandans and Africans does not need an administrative channel. He has planted seeds of African emancipation none can uproot.
This legacy argument does have some valid points. Actually, by accepting the call to serve beyond 2017, President Kagame will temporally sacrifice his worldwide reputation for the sake of the nation. This would not be the first time that Paul Kagame would have sacrifice glory to serve Rwandans: he could have decided to remain a rich officer in the Ugandan Army instead of the cold nights of the Virunga (urugano). Temporarily, commentators will cry foul and say President Kagame has become like all African Presidents with tenacious longevity in power. However, this will only be temporarily, since he assumed office, President Kagame never enjoyed the goodwill of international commentators but he commended their respect through his achievements. This will remain the order of the day if in 2017 Rwanda will continue to enjoy his leadership.
2. The pro 3rd term arguments: what changes beyond 2020?
Something is amiss in the pro 3rd term argumentation of some commentators: prophecies of doom, if the 3rd term does not occur. It should be obvious to everyone that this is not a compliment to President Kagame. The house he built is firm, the people he leads are confident; Rwanda commends respect like our forefathers always had aspired to. Rwandans want more Paul Kagame not as antidote (Umukinzi w’Icyago like King Mutara III Rudahigwa used to be called) but as amplifier. We are taking off, around 78% of Rwandans are below 35 years old, agriculture is being modernized, schools are everywhere, investments are flocking in, Rwanda is global peacekeeping force and a sought after counsel, now it is time to take off not for trial.
Nonetheless, change must come and not through the barrel of a gun but through oil pipelines and railways. Change must come because the Constitution of 2003 has been written at times we didn’t think we will reach that far. In 2017, the presidential campaign will not be about Vision 2020, it must go beyond. Consolidating our achievements won’t be enough, without exponential growth they won’t be sustainable.
Thus, the pro-3rd term proponents will fall short to match the expectations upon the leaders of Rwanda if they say no change. Rwandan leaders in both public and private sector must change so that the citizens see in them a reflection of President Kagame. Today, too many seat comfortably and overload him with issues. They delegate upwards instead of developing further the leadership entrusted in them.
Being President of Rwanda is probably the most challenging job on earth. At the beginning, there is a natural aspiration by Rwandans, just like any other country in this world, to be sovereign. However, the claim of national sovereignty is limited by our economic potency. This creates friction. But in the case of Rwanda, the adversity goes beyond collecting the bill, because Rwanda actually delivers. Ever since Rwanda has been found on the map, there has been a pervasive reflex of suffocating the Rwandan identity. Today this old reflex has many avatars such as the criminalization of cross-border trade with DRC Congo, the persecution of Rwandophones in some neighboring countries and most famously the refusal to accept Rwanda’s social indivisibility. This initial condition makes Rwanda’s governance a particularly difficult enterprise. Whoever has ambitions to lead Rwanda must be an able geopolitical fighter.
So beyond 2020, Rwanda will continue to be in geopolitical quicksand while bound to deliver on developmental outcomes for a young population with ever expanding expectations. The question is thus whether the constitutional regime of 2003 should be the one to lead us towards 2040?
In its article 193, the Constitution allows for its amendment with regards to presidential term limits only with the consent of both chambers and a referendum. Amending presidential term limits is put in the same category as the amendment of the system of government. Thus the spirit of the Constitution is that presidential term limits shall be amended in circumstances dictating fundamental changes. As previously stated, Rwanda is in the phase of deep demographic transitions, exponential socio-economic transformation with one of the highest urbanization rates in the world and an ever challenging geopolitical environment. Circumstances are fundamentally different than in 2003 when the Constitution was adopted with the settlement enshrined in the Arusha Peace Agreement in the background.
Today, we can shape our sovereign will towards a fully fledged developmental State that builds on national unity and reconciliation as non negotiable foundation. Our parliament is no longer a chamber with members arguing about the fundamental principles of our polity but one that seeks to hold the government accountable on service delivery. Should the parliament play a more active role so as to leave the President the leeway to deal with strategic issues? Should Ministers for instance not only fear being replaced by the President but also by the parliament? The last national leadership retreat has shown that more technocratic forms of accountability are needed; the kinds of delving deep in reports and contracts through long hearing hours.
In 2003, the RPF was a political movement managing the impossible. The RPF didn’t access State power in 1994, it has restored it. This came at the cost of its own institutionalization, there couldn’t be a strong RPF structure with a weak State. So RPF deployed its best cadres in the institutions of the State, some of them became functionaries and lost the cadership stamina. Although, it is a sign of success that power is now institutionalized with procedures to reach outcomes and not just revolutionary zeal, the situation of Rwanda still requires Inkotanyi. The new breed of cadres will need to deliver on complex projects and not complex human situations like the previous ones.
It comes without surprise that in the midst of all this, Rwandans feel like President Kagame shouldn’t leave his masterpiece at the time of maturity. However, this is only half the answer, as Rwandans we must earn his sacrifice and ask ourselves the question: what changes beyond 2020? For one thing is certain, disciples of Paul Kagame should always be progressive.
Africa is a rising lion 